Forecast
electrical energy needs required as input data for development planning
process an electrical system, and it is also necessary for the
operation of the power system in the provision of energy as needed. Demand Forecast or forecasts of electric energy needs itself includes
several sectors including: Households, businesses, public, and
industrial.
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| Reason Forecasting Electrical Energy Needs Required |
Forecast is basically conjecture or forecasts regarding the occurrence of an event or events in the future. Forecasts can be qualitative (not shaped figure) and quantitative (numeric form). Qualitative forecasting is difficult to obtain good results because the variables are very relative.
Quantitative forecasts consist of two, namely: single forecasts (point forecast) and the forecast interval (interval forecast). Single Forecast consists of one value, while the forecast interval consists of some value, in the form of an interval (interval) which is bounded by a lower limit value (forecast lower limit) and upper (high estimate). The weakness of the single forecasts is that the value obtained burupa idea of how much distance or difference in the forecasts with actual values. Forecast hose intended to minimize errors forecast results with reality.
Forecast electrical energy needs can be grouped according to the time period into three groups, namely:
Long-term forecasts
Long-term forecast is a forecast for a period of over one year. In the long-term forecasts of macroeconomic issues that are the problem external power companies are the main factors that determine the direction of the forecast energy needs.
Medium-term forecasts
Medium-term forecast is a forecast for a period of one month up to one year. In the medium term load forecasting managerial factors companies are the main factors that determine, for example, the technical ability to expand its distribution network.
Short-term forecasts
Short-term forecast is a forecast for a period of a few hours up to one week (168 hours). In the short-term forecasts are several factors that influence such as television shows, weather and air temperature.
Quantitative forecasts consist of two, namely: single forecasts (point forecast) and the forecast interval (interval forecast). Single Forecast consists of one value, while the forecast interval consists of some value, in the form of an interval (interval) which is bounded by a lower limit value (forecast lower limit) and upper (high estimate). The weakness of the single forecasts is that the value obtained burupa idea of how much distance or difference in the forecasts with actual values. Forecast hose intended to minimize errors forecast results with reality.
Forecast electrical energy needs can be grouped according to the time period into three groups, namely:
Long-term forecasts
Long-term forecast is a forecast for a period of over one year. In the long-term forecasts of macroeconomic issues that are the problem external power companies are the main factors that determine the direction of the forecast energy needs.
Medium-term forecasts
Medium-term forecast is a forecast for a period of one month up to one year. In the medium term load forecasting managerial factors companies are the main factors that determine, for example, the technical ability to expand its distribution network.
Short-term forecasts
Short-term forecast is a forecast for a period of a few hours up to one week (168 hours). In the short-term forecasts are several factors that influence such as television shows, weather and air temperature.
parameters Forecasting Electrical Energy are as follows:
- Time (morning, noon, afternoon, evening, midnight / weekdays, holidays, weekends).
- The weather (temperature and humidity conditions).
- Consumer groups (households, commercial sector, industry, etc.).
- Special events (national holidays, religious holidays, etc.).
- Population or population growth.
- Technology trends.
- Price of electricity.
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